Census: Is Nigeria racing against time?

The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), which was held in Cairo, Egypt in 1994 with over 180 countries in attendance, adopted a Programme of Action (PoA) to promote human rights.

This was with special focus on reproductive health and rights, gender equality and empowerment, and population and development.

The aim was to steer global action towards the rapidly increasing world population and how to set a goal to ensure that in spite of the growth, development is people-oriented.

According to the PoA, valid, reliable, timely, culturally relevant and internationally comparable data form the basis for policy and programme development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

It, therefore, called for political commitment by all countries to understand the need for data collection on a regular basis and the analysis, dissemination and full utilisation of data.

It further said all countries, particularly developing ones, should cooperate with stakeholders to strengthen their national capacity to carry out sustained and comprehensive programmes on collection, analysis, dissemination and utilisation of population and development data.

“Particular attention should be given to the monitoring of population trends and the preparation of demographic projections’’, it said

It said attention should also be paid and to the monitoring of progress towards the attainment of health, education, gender, ethnic and social-equity goals and of service accessibility and quality of care, as stated in the present PoA.

Following this are four rounds of decennial (10 years) world population and housing census programmes conducted since 1994 for measuring population numbers and tracking growth over time.

The sequences are year 2000 round conducted between 1995 and 2004, 2010 round from 2005 to 2014 and the 2020 round from 2015 to 2024. The 2030 round is expected to be from 2025 to 2034.

Population and housing censuses are a principal means of collecting basic population and housing statistics, according to Statistics Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

The essential features of population and housing censuses are individual enumeration, universality within a defined territory, simultaneity, defined periodicity and small-area statistics.

Nigeria conducted its last census in 2006. Going by the PoA Nigeria was ripe for another exercise in 2016.

However, its eight years later and a subsequent one should have been conducted going by the 10-year recommendation by the world bodies and agreements.

Nigeria has been its development activities and aiming to attain the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using estimates from its 2006 census? What does this portend for the giant of Africa?

Prof. Sunday Adedini, an associate professor of demography at Federal University Oye-Ekiti, said that Nigeria’s population was estimated to be 218 million, ranking the 6th most populated country in the world.

According to him, population and housing data in Nigeria, in terms of recency, quantum, and quality, is worrisome.

“On the account of the obsolete nature and inadequacy of data, planning has often been based on estimations, projections, and speculations.

“For instance, our most recent census data is 18 years old and our most current population data is based on projections from the 2006 population and housing census.

“How successful can we be in our developmental aspirations when the implementation of our socio-economic agenda is not based on robust and timely data?” he asked.

Adedini also said that no data source could give reliable information on regional, ethnic, and socio-cultural diversities of the country and corresponding requisite planning for inclusive development.

He blamed irregular census in the country on politicisation of the census, failure to take census as a scientific exercise necessary for planning, insufficient political will to support data generation, and insufficient financing.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), Dr Tayo Aduloju, said that the implications of not conducting a census in this long time were not limited to Nigeria alone but Africa as a whole.

He cited economic and trade implications, adding that Nigeria’s economic policies and trade agreements with other African nations depend on reliable demographic data.

“Inaccurate data can result in poor economic forecasts, affecting trade, investment, and regional economic growth.

“We also have migration and security. Nigeria’s population dynamics significantly influence migration patterns across West Africa.

“The lack of accurate data hinders the effective management of migration and refugee flows, contributing to regional instability.

“Also, Nigeria’s role as a major economic player in Africa makes its demographic data crucial for regional economic planning and integration efforts’’, he said.

Aduloju said Nigeria stood to lose international aid and support as donors and international organisations often base their support and aid on demographic data.

According to him, inaccurate or outdated data can lead to misallocation or reduction of aid because without credible data. Therefore without reliable data may miss out on financial support from international agencies and investors.

For him Nigeria is running out of time, but to recover lost ground, he advised that a date for the conduct of the exercise be set urgently and sufficient funds allocated.

He added that conducting extensive public awareness campaigns and engaging community leaders to ensure widespread participation would also suffice.

“Accurate census is important to harness demographic dividends and ensure inclusive development’’, says the Executive Director, United Nations Development Fund (UNFPA), Dr Natalia Kanem,

According to her, it is important to “count everyone because everyone counts.

“Moreover, for that mother who needs to register the birth for that statistic, and for the vital statistics issues, having population data is going to make it easier.

“Population is not just numbers, it is the people,” she said.

Dr Gifty Addico, Country Representative, UNFPA, said that timely censuses would provide the baseline data needed to track progress toward the SDGs.

“Our delay to generate timely inclusive data through the population and housing census and other exercises has masked the progress made. Timely population and housing census represents a critical opportunity.

“As we prepare to enter a new 2030 round of population and housing census era, we must ensure that our data generation exercises are prioritised and conducted timely and regularly’’, Addico said.

The Chairman, Association of the Advancement of Family Planning (AAFP), Dr Ejike Orji, said census data should drive decision making process.

“So that is why we are appealing that government should make sure this happens. If it doesn’t happen, we’re in trouble”, Orji said.

The Spokesperson, Population Advisory Group, Amb. Usman Sarki, urged the legislature to make a law making it mandatory for the country to execute population census every ten years.

In 2023, former President Muhammadu Buhari approved that the census should hold from May 3 to May 7.

It was however postponed with the expectation that a new date would be fixed by President Bola Tinubu.

Mr Isa Kwarra, Chairman of National Population Commission (NPC), said the way forward was for Nigeria and indeed Africa to strive to conduct regular censuses and surveys.

Kwarra said that conducting the census in alignment with the global schedule ensures that the nation’s demographic data is comparable with international datasets, positioning Nigeria for informed decision-making and global relevance.

“This alignment also enables us to leverage global best practices and expertise, ensuring a high-quality census that meets international standards.

“It is good to continue to re-echo this so that more Nigerians will see the relevance of conducting the census within this 2020 global census round”, he said.

He said that the commission was prepared to conduct the exercise but was awaiting the Tinubu’s approval.

“The 2020 round of census is ending this year. We will be making a hypothesis to make sure that we conduct the census before the 2020 round of census comes to an end.

“I want to believe that we will get it right, we are just waiting on the president to give us the date, and the commission is ever prepared to do it once we have a date declared by the President.

“The resources should be able to recruit extra hands to help us in conducting a very robust census that will provide inclusive data that is not just verifiable, but will be acceptable by all.

“If we start now, we can achieve it; at least the 2020 round of census gives us an opportunity to extend up to April 2025”, he said.

By Folasade Akpan