Examining the cycle of military coup in West Africa

Available statistics showed that since 1958, when many African countries became independent, the West African sub-region accounted for the highest number of military coups that occurred on the continent.

Since 2010, more than 40 coups and attempted putsches occurred in Africa, with about 20 of such coups happening in West Africa and the Sahel (including Chad).

This represents 44.4 per cent of all the coups that occurred on the continent within 50 years (1958 – 2008).

Since 2019 there were seven coups – five successful and two failed.

Between 1958 and 2008, most coups in Africa occurred in former French colonies. Specifically, 12 of the 20 coups in the sub-region since 2010 happened there.

The latest successful putsch in Burkina Faso came on the heels of two attempted ones in 2015 and 2016.

The successful coup in Burkina Faso on Jan. 24, 2022, renewed worries and concerns about coups "returning" and democracies being strangulated in Africa.

The recent attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau, too, rekindle the interest of followers of events about the first decades after independence, when coups were rampant.

Looking at a record of coups in West Africa, analysts have suggested that there appear to be some recurring factors that have given rise to the putsches.

A Research Fellow, Dan Suleiman, and a Senior Lecturer, Hakeem Onapajo, in their article: " Why West Africa has had so many coups and how to prevent them,'' postulated two categories of factors responsible for the recurrence of military coups in the sub-region: external and internal.

Speaking with the correspondent, Sen. Shehu Sani, Vice Chairman, Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs in the 8th Senate, said the new wave of coups in Africa "is threatening the democratic gains so far recorded by national governments in the continent.''

He said although coups were not new in Africa, the new wave of it across the continent was serious threat to democratic process in Africa.

Sani condemned a situation where sitting African leaders decide to elongate their stay in power unconstitutionally.

He attributed coups to the failure of democratic leaders to live up to the expectations of their people politically and economically.

"When leaders violate the constitution that legitimises their government, they have laid the grounds for a military takeover.

"When elected leaders plunder the resources of their country and impoverish the people, they have laid the foundation for a military coup because coups plotters will always take advantage of the failure of democratically elected governments.

"When elected leaders are proven to be weak in terms of tackling security issues in the country, they are laying the grounds for a military takeover.

"Military regimes come as a result of aggravation of some symptoms of bad governance, which is self-evident in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Islamist terrorism was the trigger that led to the coup.

"In the case of Sudan, when you fail to unite your country – the nation was almost at the point of disintegration – a vacuum in leadership is created," Sani said.

Suleiman and Onapajo, revealed a trend in which political power is inherited rather than democratically contested, as people are appointed, while they pay allegiance to powerful political overlords.

The dons said that several sitting presidents in the continent had tampered with the constitutional terms to stay longer in power.

The coups have forced people to reflect on whether democracy has resulted in tangible benefits, said Idayat Hassan, Director, Centre for Democracy and Development Thinktank, Abuja.

"West Africans have become quite republican. They provide their (own) food, generate their own electricity, infrastructure. They expect just a little from the state but the state still fails expectations," she said.

"They cannot see what democracy has brought; so, in come opportunistic military (officers) that see these governance vacuums and are trying to fill it," she added

There is also popular frustration that the international community often sounds the alarm when coups occur, and not when democracies are routinely undermined.

"There is a focus on elections being free and fair, and not enough focus on the way democracies are undermined," said Hassan.

"ECOWAS and the African Union continue to monitor elections without any form of preventing what happened with (Alpha) Condé and (Alassane) Ouattara," she added, referring to constitutional changes in Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire to allow those countries' leaders to serve controversial third terms.

Both won referendums that were rejected by opposition groups as fraudulent and "those were constitutional coup d'états," she said.

Meanwhile, Oumar Bâ, Assistant Professor of International Relations at Cornell University, expressed concern that the people's support for coups suggests that populations are increasingly seeing them as the answer to remove unpopular governments.

In Mali's capital, Bamako, for instance, thousands participated in rallies in support of the junta, including after ECOWAS sanctions were imposed.

"Many of the demonstrations showing support for these military regimes are in urban areas. But the people who live in the cities have a different perception from people who live in the rural areas, where you're likely to find more worry," he said.

Sani, therefore, urged sub-regional blocs to wade into the situation and take decisive steps towards salvaging the democratic culture across the continent.

"Ironically, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is the most functional of the regional economic communities in Africa.

"We (ECOWAS) have streamlined healthcare regulations; our educational sector is streamlined; we all write WAEC; our doctors and nurses write the same medical examination; and we have a no-visa policy that works.

"We have a regional parliament in place and a regular meeting of Heads of State and Governments.

"We are not doing badly as a sub-regional group. ECOWAS is the best in Africa, but unfortunately, we have seen a wave of coups as has happened in Guinea Bissau, Mali, and now Burkina Faso.

"This means it is a serious reversal to democratic gains in the continent, as it imperils democracy and freedom in Africa.

"Another problem we have is Islamist terrorism, which triggered the coup in Burkina Faso.

"So, there is need for the sub-regional groups to strengthen democracy, and security is needed more now," he said.

The former lawmaker called for a standing West African military force to assist member states in stopping Islamist terror.

"This Francophone-Anglophone dichotomy must be dissolved now; we are not a colony of the United Kingdom. French West Africa is not a colony of France.

"It is time to assert our independence, to protect our dignity, and to live up to the dreams of our founding fathers in the sub-region.

"The ECOWAS must reinvent itself to tackle its security issues and assist in strengthening democracy.

"If ECOWAS is silent when an elected president changes the constitution, breaches human rights, and commits human right abuses in these countries, it has no moral ground to condemn any coup, '' Sani said.

Suleiman and Onapajo enumerated the external influences responsible for coups in Africa.

They said that in the first four decades of independence, coups were set against Cold War politics as two global powers, the Soviet Union (now Russia) and the U.S. locked horns over the continent.

They also opined that like coups in the post-independence era, recent coups in West Africa also have foreign fingerprints.

For instance, Russia is cited in both the 2021 and 2020 coups in Mali, as well as the latest one in Burkina Faso.

Assimi Goïta, the leader of both coups in Mali, is also reported to have received U.S. training and assistance.

They asserted that the influence of France in political developments in the sub-region is almost a given, due to its colonial ties to West Africa.

Mahamat Déby's covert coup in Chad, for example, received endorsement from Paris.

China, too, joined Russia in preventing France, which had the support of the U.S. and the EU, to have the UN Security Council support a decision to impose economic and border sanctions on Mali.

Indeed, whereas China criticised the putsch in Guinea, it has been quiet on Mali's development, they noted.

Thus, in the 21st century too, the quest for strategic influence and advantage by foreign powers in Africa has involved them in coups in the continent.

They tolerate local politics and authoritarianism as long as their strategic advantage is served.

Foreign policy experts say that to avert future military takeover of government, there is a need to seek the help of regional and global partners.

They are also of the opinion that bad governance in the form of non-fulfillment of promises made during political campaigns should be addressed.

According to them, regional bodies such as the ECOWAS and the AU have no choice but to be firm and unbiased in their show of contempt for all types of military takeover of government.

They suggest that concerted efforts should be made by stakeholders to discourage foreign interference in African countries' internal affairs.