Nigeria’s economy under Buhari: Success, lessons for Tinubu
As Nigeria begins a new life under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the performance of his predecessor, Muhammdu Buhari, in the economy sector over the past eight years will continue to receive attention in the years to come.
While many observers and stakeholders are of the view that the Buhari administration performed creditably in this critical sector, others contend that it could have performed better given Nigeria’s enormous human and material resources.
In his inaugural speech in 2015, former President Muhammadu Buhari blamed Nigeria’s poor economic performance on power and promised to identify the quickest, safest, and most cost-effective way to bring light and relief to Nigerians.
Buhari also promised to address the problem of youth unemployment through agriculture, solid mineral mining, and credits for small and medium-sized businesses.
He equally promised to revive major industries and accelerate the revival and development of railways, roads, and general infrastructure.
In his second tenure speech in 2019, Buhari noted that Nigeria possesses all the ingredients of a major economic power on the world stage, adding that “what we require is the will to get our act together.
“A huge responsibility therefore rests on this and succeeding administrations to develop, harness, and fulfill our enormous potential into a force to be reckoned with globally,” he said.
Eight years down the line, in his farewell speech on Sunday, Buhari claimed that under his watch, Nigeria’s economy has become more resilient.
He attributed the successes to the various strategies put in place to ensure that the economy remained afloat during spells of global economic downturns.
“We increased the ability of the poor and rural Nigerians to earn a living, provided more food for millions in our villages, and gave our women opportunities to earn a living.
“Young men and women in urban centers were also supported to put their skills to productive use.
“Our administration also provided an enabling environment for the private sector to engage in businesses for which their return on investments is guaranteed,” he said.
He said that in the course of revamping the economy, his administration made some difficult choices, most of which yielded desired results, and apologized for the temporary pain some of the decisions caused.
He said that to ensure adequate infrastructure to drive economic growth, his administration has completed age-long projects and processes.
Buhari identified the notable successes in this regard to include the Petroleum Industry Act, the completion of some power projects, the completion of the second Niger Bridge, and various important roads linking cities and states.
However, mixed reactions have followed this evaluation.
Mr Saeed Tafida, Co-founder of Follow Taxes, an initiative of Transparency and Accountability in Totality, working to enhance fiscal transparency, said that Nigeria’s economy performed better under Buhari especially in the last three years of his tenure
Tafida told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that currently Nigeria is the 23rd largest economy in the world, a height he said Nigeria never reached in the past.
On domestic resource mobilization, Tafida said that the Buhari-led government has taken some bold steps that have increased funds in the hands of the government.
He explained that the Buhari government introduced some new bad taxes and tax reliefs that everyone feared were bad for the economy but ended up increasing revenues.
He said that revenues collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service grew from 3.7 trillion in 2015 to N6.4 trillion in 2021 and N10 trillion at the end of 2022.
“There is also huge investment in social protection, specifically direct cash transfers to poor and vulnerable people.
“Although the implementation was allegedly marred with transparency and accountability issues, the poor that benefited never had it this good,” he said.
He nonetheless acknowledged the huge gap between GDP growth, economic growth, and the wellbeing of the people.
Also, a tax administrator, Mr. Zakari Muhammad, particularly applauded the outgoing Buhar administration for enhancing the domestic economy through some impactful economic policies and programs.
Muhammad told NAN that the closure of the border and other agricultural policies by the Buhari government have strengthened domestic production of rice, wheat, and other agricultural produce.
He also commended Buhari’s government for promoting ease of doing business in the country, stressing that the measure has led to the establishment of more industries and job opportunities for the people.
He, however, complained of the visible high cost of living, which negatively impacted the lives of the poor and vulnerable groups.
However, some academics and a public finance management analyst have a contrary view, arguing that Nigeria’s economy witnessed the greatest slump in the last eight years.
Prof. Terhemba Wuam of Kaduna State University (KASU) has a contrary view, saying that in the eight years of Buhari’s government, the average growth rate hovered below two percent.
Wuam, a professor of economic history and a senior fellow at the Effective Governance Research Institute, added that the economy stagnated and incomes lost their purchasing power annually for eight years.
He told NAN that the naira redesign under Buhari’s watch was a harsh policy that impoverished many Nigerians and disrupted economic growth.
“The indices speak for themselves. The economy went in and out of recession.
“Growth throughout the eight years tenure never reached the five per cent per capita point, as against the 10 per cent GDP growth rate he promised while campaigning to be president”, he said.
The professor however acknowledged that international factors like the slumps in crude oil prices at the beginning of his tenure and the COVID-19 global pandemic had played a role in the shortcomings in the economy.
“Buhari preferred to see borrowing as an economic strategy to grow his infrastructure agenda than to grow the economy to better serve the same purpose.
“Had the national economy grown Nigerians would have got far richer and better off, and the President would still have had the resources to build infrastructure from the national wealth.
“What has happened, however, is that the slow growth rate has made Nigerians standards of living to decline and expanded Nigeria’s debt burden,” he said.
Similarly, Dr Peter Adamu of the Department of Economics, KASU said that the Nigerian economy under Buhari government has been characterised by instability, largely caused by corruption and poor policy formulation and implementation.
Adamu also said that the macroeconomic indicators were bleak with high debt profile, rising inflation rate, increasing unemployment rate, poor exchange rate policy among other indicators.
“The minimum wage in dollar terms has equally shrunk from an average of $181 per month in 2014 to $65 per month in 2023”, he said.
The economist nonetheless noted that some gains were made in the transportation sector such as standard gauge rail lines from Lagos to Ibadan, Abuja to Kaduna, Warri to Itakpe.
He also identified the completion of new terminals for international airports as another milestone of the Buhari-led government.
He, however, said that these gains were only felt by the upper class in the society.
“Economic growth recovery has largely remained slow because the purchasing power has reduced more than half due to rising inflation,” Adamu said.
Sharing a similar view, Mr Yusuf Goje, a public finance management analyst, said that Buhari did not perform to people’s expectations when you examine the high poverty and unemployment rate in the country.
He, however, said that the Buhari-led government has, to a large extent, done a lot in providing transport infrastructure.
“These are investments you don’t reap the benefits in the short term. it is usually from medium to long term and on that basis, we can score the government on average.
“The country has experienced two recessions and the government has done its best in bringing the nation out of it”, he said.
“By and large, Buhari has not met his 2015 promise of boosting the economy and creating three millions of jobs annually,” he said.
As the President Bola Tinubu administration settles down, economic experts urge it to sustain Buhari administration’s policies that impacted positively on Nigerians such investment in infrastructure and agriculture.
They also counsel it to avoid the pitfalls of the previous government and embark on polices that will promote wealth creation, provide employments and boost revenue through diversification from oil receipts.
By Philip Yatai
