Cancer rates to increase to 77 % by 2050, says UN

Global cancer cases are expected to rise by around 77 percent by the middle of the century, UN health authorities said on Thursday.

According to the latest figures from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a specialised branch of the UN World Health Organisation (WHO), there are predicted to be more than 35 million cancer cases during 2050, up from the estimated 20 million in 2022.

The increase reflects both population ageing and growth, as well as changes to people’s exposure to risk factors, which include tobacco, alcohol, and obesity, which are key factors, along with the air population.

Richer countries are expected to have the greatest absolute increase in cancer, with an additional 4.8 million new cases predicted in 2050.

However, low- and middle-income countries should see a higher proportional increase in cancer, while mortality is projected to almost double.

The estimates from the IARC’s Global Cancer Observatory are based on the best sources of data available from 185 countries and cover 36 different forms of cancer.

They were published alongside a WHO survey from 115 countries, which showed that the majority do not adequately finance priority cancer and palliative care services as part of universal health coverage.

Ten types of cancer collectively comprised around two-thirds of new cases and deaths globally in 2022, the IARC said.

Lung cancer was the most commonly occurring form worldwide, with 2.5 million new cases. It accounted for more than 12 percent of all new cases and 18.9 percent of deaths, or 1.8 million, making it the leading cause of cancer death.

Female breast cancer ranked second in terms of occurrence, with 2.3 million cases worldwide, or 11.6 percent, but accounted for 6.9 percent of deaths.

Other commonly occurring cancers were colorectal, prostate, and stomach cancers.

Colorectal cancer was the second-leading cause of cancer death, followed by liver, breast, and stomach cancer.

Cervical cancer was the eighth most commonly occurring cancer globally, the ninth leading cause of cancer death, and the most common cancer in women in 25 countries, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.

The IARC estimates, issued ahead of World Cancer Day on February 4, also revealed striking inequalities, particularly in breast cancer.

One in 12 women in richer countries will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and one in 71 will die of it, the agency said.

However, although only one in 27 women in poorer countries will receive a positive breast cancer diagnosis, one in 48 will die.

These women “are at a much higher risk of dying of the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment,” Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, said.

The WHO survey also revealed significant global inequities in cancer services. For example, higher-income countries were up to seven times more likely to include lung cancer-related services in their health benefits packages.

“WHO, including through its cancer initiatives, is working intensively with more than 75 governments to develop, finance, and implement policies to promote cancer care for all,” Dr. Bente Mikkelsen, Director of its Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, said, underscoring the need for greater investment.