Gambari warns of consequences of new Cold War on Africa

The former Undersecretary General of the United Nations, Ambassador Ibrahim Gambari, has raised an alarm on the gradual return of the world to a new Cold War in which the big powers are directly joined and the Middle Powers are implicated either directly or by proxy.

Delivering the 12th Annual Lecture of Realnews Magazine on Tuesday in Lagos Gambari, who was a former Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Chief of Staff to former President Muhammadu Buhari, noted the ongoing geopolitical resurgence and realignment which we are all witnessing in these trying times around the world.

Speaking on the theme ”Africa in World Shifting Geopolitics: Matters Arising on Demography, Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Natural Resources”, Gambari urged Africans generally and Nigerians in particular ”to take a step back and reflect on the contours of change taking around us as for the invitation it provides us to begin seriously to think through their implications for our immediate future and long-term interest.”

The changes, according to him, are unfolding before our eyes, promise a profound transformation the workings of the international system, and nations, big and small, North and South, are busily preparing themselves to ensure that they are neither left behind nor reduced to victims of the new order that is in the making.

Observing that the expenditures on new generations of weapons of mass destruction are skyrocketing and across the world, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the Arctic to the Antarctic, on land, in the air, on the seas, and in the outer space, he stated that “a relentless militarisation is taking place”.

“Taking advantage of the possibilities opened up by new digital technologies and artificial intelligence, various options for electronic warfare are being developed.

“In all of this, prime locations around the world that offer one form or the other of strategic advantage are being sought,” he said, adding that Africa, with an abundance of such strategic sites is, not surprisingly, the target of competitive bid from the Big and Middle Powers setting up military bases.

“We know that the entire seaboard of Africa is already dotted with military bases operated by various powers; the continent is once again at the centre of a scramble as the new Cold War intensifies. In addition to geo-strategic considerations in the event of conflicts and war, there are strong interests in securing access to and control of strategic and critical minerals and arable land and forests,” he said.

Gambari also noted that competitive investments are also being made in building stable and durable political alliances with the governments of various countries and that the age of zero sum geopolitics is back with all its destabilising consequences for African countries.

Looking at the options open for Africa, Gambari stated that with well over a billion people and with an overwhelmingly youthful population, the African continent is destined for a significant role in the demographics of the world in a context in which populations are both declining and ageing rapidly in many other parts of the world.

He believes that taking advantage of the African demographic dividend in a renewed season of new global geopolitics effectively means that the countries of the continent “must build national and regional strategies to leverage the energy, innovative acumen, and futuristic vision of its young people in order to ensure that as a new world order takes shape, we are positioned to be joint rule makers”.

According to him, the import of all the foregoing is simple. “Although there is no doubt that up we are in the throes of rapid, complex, multidimensional change in global affairs, it is equally important to know that the outcome of the ongoing geopolitical shifts are not necessarily destined to be at the expense of or to the detriment of our people and continent. That means that we must be ready to harness our abundant human and natural resources to leapfrog our development in order to achieve the structural transformation that has eluded us for too long.

“It also means that we cannot afford to sit on the sidelines while the rules of a new world order are being written; we have the opportunity to insist on being joint rule makers so that the new global order that is being forged reflects our values and aspirations for a fairer, more inclusive, and equitable world.

“In this, we must ensure that our youth bulge is turned into an advantage that puts us at the forefront of the digital economy and the innovations underpinning it,” he added.